November 2024 | A political update from Dublin by Heneghan Managing Director, Nigel Heneghan

A quick political update from Dublin, although by no means a surprise.

Dáil Dissolved: A General Election has been confirmed for Friday 29th November 2024.

Election: The 2024 general election will see an increase to 174 TDs (MPs) representing 43 constituencies elected to the 34th Dáil. The outgoing Dáil had 160 TDs representing 39 constituencies.

Forming a Government: Following voting on Friday 29th, the election count will take place on Saturday 30th November and Sunday 1st December, with possible spillover into Monday or Tuesday. There should be a very good sense by the end of that weekend, of what shape the next Government will take.

Once the seats have been filled, a negotiation will take place to agree the formation of a new government.

In the outgoing administration, there was a “rotating Taoiseach” arrangement between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. This political innovation is thought to have worked well, and it is a scenario that could be possible in an incoming administration.

Seanad Eireann (The Senate): which is the upper house in Ireland (loosely equivalent to the House of Lords, in terms of the scrutiny or introduction of legislation), must have its election no later than ninety days after a General Election is called. Senators sit as members of Oireachtas (Parliamentary) Committees and there will be no Committee system in place until the Senate election is complete.

There may be a modest effect at local authority level, where some local Councillors could get elected to the Dáil or Senate. They would then be required to resign their local Council seats.

Predictions: According to a range of recent polls, the configuration of the next government is most likely to return Fine Gael (led by Taoiseach, Simon Harris) and Fianna Fáil, (let by Tánaiste, deputy prime Minister, Micheál Martin). Those same polls do not augur well for the Green Party or the main opposition party Sinn Féin. There is speculation, based on polling data, that Fine Gael / Fianna Fáil will have enough seats to form a government, but there is also the possibility that the incoming Taoiseach will seek the support of a smaller party or ‘moderate’ independents to ensure an electoral cushion in the Dáil.

Programme for Government: The incoming government will publish the policy framework for the new administration for the next five-year term. The timing of this will more or less coincide with the appointment of Ministers to the Cabinet. Subject to negotiation and agreement, it will likely broadly reflect major existing policy and infrastructure projects such as Ireland 2040 or Net Zero 2050. It will also reflect key elements of the political parties’ election manifestos. If there is agreement for support from a smaller party or independents, they will also influence the Programme for Government.

Good luck to those making themselves accountable to their fellow citizens in Ireland's robust democratic process.

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